Saturday, February 21, 2009

Krypto-Nate



Looking at all the moves I've made (trading Ray Allen for Shawn Marion ... then swapping Chris Duhon, Vince Carter, Ronnie Brewer and Marquis Daniels for Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, and Allen Iverson), none has worked out quite like the pickup of Nate Robinson. In 11 starts for me, Nate has posted some gaudy numbers:

231 pts (21 per game)
24 3s (2.2)
53 rebounds (4.8)
51 assists (4.6)
13 steals (1.2)
2 blocks
15 turnovers (1.4)

All while shooting 49.7% from the field. His FT% leaves a little to be desired (.750), but it's not a liability on a team that already features Dwight Howard.

In the meantime, I did a bit more post-trade number crunching. Looking at the players I acquired (Rondo, Iverson, Green, Marion) and those I gave up (Duhon, Allen, Carter, Brewer ... Daniels is not included in this comparison -- he's either been injured or his value completely eroded with the return of Mike Dunleavy. That may now change with Dunleavy's indefinite absence from the Pacer lineup), here's the net result:

92 fewer 3s (this has dropped me from 11 pts in the category to 7)
154 fewer points
136 more rebounds
10 more assists
8 more steals
4 more blocks
8 more turnovers

Of course, my players (Rondo, Iverson, Green, Marion) played 8 fewer games than the Duhon/Allen/Carter/Brewer group (71 vs. 79 games -- this was due to Marion's groin injury). If you consider Nate's production in 11 starts, the scoring deficit is removed and the net result is about 75 fewer 3s. That's the only major drawback to the transaction.

I just swapped Tony Parker (0.3 3s in the last month) and Paul Pierce (0.8 3s) for Eric Gordon (2.4 3s) and Jason Richardson (1.8), meaning that I have a very good chance of reclaiming some points in 3s.

My lineup is now:

PG: Rondo
SG: Gordon
G: Robinson
SF: Richardson
F: Green
PF: Marion
C: Howard
UTIL: Iverson/Love/Ellis

I finally cut Gilbert Arenas loose, realizing that he wouldn't play till the last 15 games of the year and that his minutes would be limited -- or so goes the rumor. My bench now includes Drew Gooden, Nocioni, Rasual Butler and Krstic ... all of whom are unlikely to see playing time.

Here are some post-trade comparisons position by position:

Point Guard

In 19 games, Rondo has produced a .492 FG%, .589 FT%, 3 3s, 230 pts (12.1), 121 rebounds (6.4), 195 assists (10.3), 31 steals, 3 blocks, 56 turnovers

Over 20 games, Duhon has produced 38 3s, 262 points, 64 rebounds, 148 assists, 14 steals, 2 blocks, and 48 turnovers. His FG% has improved from .420 (in my lineup) to .429 on the season, while his free throw percentage has fallen from .905 to .861.

Verdict: Rondo's major drawbacks are FT% and 3s. He has produced 57 more rebounds, 47 more assists, and 17 more steals.

Shooting Guard

In 19 games, Iverson has produced a .424 FG%, .748 FT%, 7 3s, 354 pts (18.6), 51 rebounds (2.7), 83 assists (4.4), 32 steals, 4 blocks, 42 turnovers

In 21 games, Allen has produced 53 3s, 378 pts (18), 62 rebounds (3), 65 assists (3.1), 26 steals, 4 blocks, and 39 turnovers

Verdict: Allen has 46 more 3s over this time period and superior percentages (since the deal, his FG% has only fallen from .488 to .486 and his FT% has gone up from .922 to .947). Scoring, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and turnovers are pretty much a wash. Iverson has been playing better as of late, producing more points and steals, but the hit taken in 3s is hard to ignore.

Small Forward

In 19 games, Jeff Green has produced a .439 FG%, .810 FT%, 25 3s, 335 points, 155 rebounds, 38 assists, 16 steals, 10 blocks, 46 turnovers.

In 19 games, Vince Carter has produced 29 3s, 329 points, 98 rebounds, 94 assists, 25 steals, 8 blocks, and 33 turnovers. Carter's FG% has gone down from .450 to .437 and his free throw percentage has improved from .803 to .811.

Verdict: It's hard to believe, but Jeff Green has almost held his own. Carter has only 4 more 3s. Green has outrebounded him (3 more boards a game from Green, who's averaged 8.2), which is offset by Carter's advantage in assists (56 more, 3 more per game). There is no meaningful difference in points, FG%, FT%, and blocks. Carter does have 9 more steals and 13 fewer turnovers, giving him a slight nod in value.

UTIL

In 14 games (including an 8 minute, 2 point affair), Marion has produced a .516 FG%, .917 FT%, 2 3s, 182 pts (13 per game), 112 rebounds (8 per game), 28 assists (2 per game), 18 steals, 11 blocks and only 10 turnovers.

In 19 games, Ronnie Brewer has 9 3s, 286 pts (15.1), 79 rebounds, 27 assists, 24 steals, 10 blocks, and 26 turnovers. Brewer has shot .542 from the field (103-190) and 71 of 99 on FTs (.717).

Verdict: The Kirilenko injury and Millsap's decline no doubt benefited Brewer in the Jazz offense. After Williams and Okur, he's their most reliable offensive player. Both of these players have produced a high FG% and few turnovers. Marion's major advantage obviously comes on the boards. The trade to Toronto will no doubt benefit him. I expect the acquisition of Marion to pay off down the stretch, rendering this 4 for 4 pretty even.

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About Me

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I am a researcher, reporter and conference producer with experience spanning the aerospace & defense, biopharma, chemical, consumer electronics, energy, homeland security, human resources and IT markets.

In January I rejoined Worldwide Business Research, where I serve as program manager for Consumer Returns, SCMchem and the Digital Travel Summit.

I have an M.S. in science and medical journalism from Boston University (Dec 2008) and did my undergraduate work at Indiana University, majoring in journalism and political science (May 2001). After interning for the Chicago Tribune as a collegian, I landed my first real gig in the Windy City: I was a senior technology writer for I-Street magazine (Sept 2001-Feb 2003). I covered nanotech and biotech startups. From March-November 2003, I worked for a newsletter publisher (Exchange Monitor Publications) in DC, covering congressional hearings, the NRC & DHS.


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