Thursday, January 19, 2012

The Early Disappointments of 11-12: First Round Edition

Dwayne Wade: A consensus top 5 pick, Wade has missed 4 games and underperformed the rest of the time. Through 9 games he's shooting .439 from the field (versus last year's 50% and a career clip of .484), with no 3s, fewer boards (4.3 vs. 6.4) and obviously less point production (19.6 vs. 25.5 a year ago). It's still early and there's hope that Wade can shake his injuries ... but it's a reminder that FNBA success is about every player on your roster, not just your first round pick.

Dwight Howard: No one is going to complain about 20.1 ppg or 15.6 rebounds ... or a .587 FG% with 2.4 blocks per game. This is the Dwight we've come to know and love. However, Dwight's traditionally atrocious free throw shooting (career .594) has reached a whole new level this year (.450 with 11.4 attempts a game, ouch!). It's tough to punt a category and win a league. I've owned Dwight during those 59% seasons (remarkably he's finished between .586 and .596 during his last six seasons -- he's been reliably bad) and could still luck into 3 points with a team free throw percentage around 76%. But there's no hope of that if he's shooting 45% from the line.

Dirk Nowitzki: The champion Mavericks looked old and slow out of the gate and Nowitzki was no exception. But there are some other factors at work in the severe stat deflation. Nowitzki only played 42 minutes total in two blowout wins over the Kings and Bucks (back to back). Similarly, he only played a combined 50 minutes in blowout losses to the Nuggets (game two) and Spurs (game eight). He's only averaging 30:23 this season after averaging 34:17 in playing time a year ago. Coincidentally, that was the first season that he had averaged under 36 minutes since 1999-2000. At age 33, Nowitzki is unlikely to log as much time as he did earlier in his career (36-37 minutes) but 30 minutes still strikes me as a tad low (dictated moreso by lopsided games than a Carlisle plan to rest Dirk even more). The more concerning aspects of Nowitzki's performance are his early FG% (.458, down from a career high .517 in 10-11), lack of 3s (0.5 on 25% shooting vs. .379 career) and rebounds (5.5 vs. 7.0 a year ago). The scoring should rise (17.9 ppg vs. 23.0 a year ago) as the minutes and percentages rise but temper expectations; 21 ppg might be as good as it gets in a share the wealth Dallas offense with a coach who still wants to save his star for the playoffs.

Russell Westbrook: Nothing too concerning ... this merely boils down to low assists figures (5.5 vs. 8.2 a year ago) and slightly less scoring (20.5 vs. 21.9). He could be back in the top 20 by next week.

Deron Williams: .372 on 15.6 attempts per game ... maybe last year's brief Net stint (.349 in 12 games) was a sign of things to come. Not having Brook Lopez (due back in 2-4 weeks) certainly hurts but Williams has always been a turnover prone player (3.1 career) and has shown no signs of letting up (4.3 per game this year).



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About Me

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I am a researcher, reporter and conference producer with experience spanning the aerospace & defense, biopharma, chemical, consumer electronics, energy, homeland security, human resources and IT markets.

In January I rejoined Worldwide Business Research, where I serve as program manager for Consumer Returns, SCMchem and the Digital Travel Summit.

I have an M.S. in science and medical journalism from Boston University (Dec 2008) and did my undergraduate work at Indiana University, majoring in journalism and political science (May 2001). After interning for the Chicago Tribune as a collegian, I landed my first real gig in the Windy City: I was a senior technology writer for I-Street magazine (Sept 2001-Feb 2003). I covered nanotech and biotech startups. From March-November 2003, I worked for a newsletter publisher (Exchange Monitor Publications) in DC, covering congressional hearings, the NRC & DHS.


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