Last January, I went through a list of players who will kill you with turnovers -- players without enough positives to make the turnovers excusable. That list included the likes of Stephen Jackson, Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook, Chris Duhon, Steve Nash, Boris Diaw, Allen Iverson, Devin Harris and Raymond Felton.
Since that time, Carmelo has really lifted his game -- he's gone from averaging 21.2 ppg to 30 ppg. And his turnovers have gone down from 3.3 per game to 2.9 while his FG% has improved from .437 to .470. Carmelo no longer kills you with turnovers -- he seems to be a top 10-15 fantasy threat (provided he stays healthy) for the rest of the year.
Stephen Jackson's turnovers have declined - 3.2 vs. 3.9 at the time of last year's post -- but his assists have gone down as well (from 5.9 to 3.7 on the year). His FG% is as toxic as ever (.403 vs. .395 last year). He remains a part of the turnover club.
How about Russell Westbrook? He was averaging 3.0 turnovers last year and he's at 3.1 this year (albeit 2.4 in the last month). However, his FG% has gotten even worse as a sophomore -- .391 on the season, .371 in the last month. His Yahoo rank - based on season averages - is #136 and he has not lived up to his draft position.
Chris Duhon may be the most puzzling member of Mike D'Antoni's rotation and you have to wonder what Nate Robinson's one game outburst (41 points) will mean for his future minutes. While Duhon still can't shoot a lick (.362 on the season, .421 last year and .393 for his career), he has lowered his turnovers this season to 1.8 per game (down from 3.0 last year) in close to 35 minutes of action. In the last month he's tallied an impressive 7.3 assists to 1.8 turnovers, while hitting 2.6 3s. That amazingly gives him a rank of #42 for the last month and #114 for the season. Ride him while he's still playing well ... and I mean well by Chris Duhon standards.
Steve Nash is having a comeback year. He was only at 14.4 ppg at the time of last year's post and finished with 15.7 ppg -- this year he's all the way up to 18.4 ppg. His assists have also gone up, from last year's 9.7 to 11.2 in this campaign. Nash is also shooting an amazing .539 on the year and .556 in the last month -- vs. last season's .503. All of this means that you can live with the persistent turnovers (3.7 on the year, 3.6 in the last month).
The biggest problem for Devin Harris this year has been FG% -- he's only shooting .391 for the season, .406 in the last month (he was at .438 his first two years in New Jersey and was much a better shooter in Dallas). He remains an underwhelming 3 point shooter (0.7 on the season) and 5.7 assists to 2.8 turnovers doesn't help his cause much either.
Boris Diaw's production is down across the board. 10.3 ppg vs. 15.1 ppg last season (3.5 fewer shot attempts per game with the addition of Stephen Jackson), 4.2 rebounds vs. 5.9 last year, 3.3 assists vs. 4.9 last year, etc. While his turnovers have dropped from 3 per game to 2.3, there's nothing else which warrants a start from Diaw right now.
Turnovers are the least of Allen Iverson's problems right now -- his steady slide into fantasy irrelevance continues.
Raymond Felton (season average rank of #75, rank of #22 in the last month) is still an underwhelming performer in assists (5.1 for the year vs. 2.6 turnovers) but he's averaging 2 steals and 1.2 3s in the last month. While his shot attempts have dropped (10.9 vs. 13.2 last season) and his minutes have been trimmed (down 4 per game), his FG% has gone up from .408 last season to .466 this year. At the moment, Felton is very playable in all formats.
So to summarize:
* We have Stephen Jackson and Russell Westbrook as repeat offenders in the turnover category
* Carmelo Anthony and Steve Nash have turned it around this year -- they still turn the ball over a lot, but have too much to offer in other categories
* Chris Duhon is playing well ... at least temporarily. Ditto for Raymond Felton.
* The Harris problem is FG% moreso than turnovers this year
* Iverson and Diaw are now unplayable for many reasons -- TOs being the least of their problems
Who are some of the new turnover kings to look out for?
* Monta Ellis -- He's scoring more than ever before (25.7 on the season, 27.9 in the last month -- he could easily average over 27 the rest of the way) and predictably turning the ball over more than ever before (4.5 TOs in the last month, 4.3 on the season).
Monta has seen 4.5 more shot attempts per game (vs. last year's injury shortened campaign) in Stephen Jackson's absence, but he's also averaging 1.6 more turnovers (4.3 vs. 2.7 last year).
While the turnovers heavily contribute to Ellis' low rank in the last month (average of #68 -- he's at #43 for the year), his inability to hit 80% of his free throws is also troubling (.732 in the last month, .764 on the year). It's not quite a problem of Dwight Howard proportions, but he is acting as a drag on your team FT%.
* Deron Williams -- He's a point guard who scores a lot (19.6) and passes a lot (9.7 assists per game), so turnovers typically come with the territory. This year's average of 3.5 is not much different from last season (3.4) and the # has fallen in the last month (3.1). However, Williams' bigger problem this year - similar to Ellis - is FT%. He's shooting .752 from the line, which is his worst performance since his rookie year. For his career, Williams is a .792 FT shooter.
* Chris Kaman -- Still a draft day steal by any measure (20.3 ppg, 9.2 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, .510 from the field), but his turnovers (3.1) are also a career high.
* Tyreke Evans -- Another draft day steal, but his game still has some troubling aspects for fantasy GMs. Only 4.9 assists vs. 3.0 turnovers per game and he has not yet emerged as much of a 3 point threat (0.5 per game). Still, I'll take 20.1 ppg, 5.1 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.4 steals.
* Dwight Howard -- If the scary FT% and declining point production (16.9 vs. 20.6 last season -- and two 9 point games after his coach said that the team would be going to him more in the post?) haven't scared you off, how about 3.3 turnovers per game? 3.4 fewer shot attempts per game, yet the turnovers have gone up from 3.0 to 3.3. Go figure. Blocks (2.5 vs. 2.9) and rebounds (13.3 vs. 13.8) are slightly down as well.
* Gilbert Arenas -- Welcome back, Gil! Unpaid gambling debts, firearm trouble ... and then we get to his performance on the court, which has been poor. Lots of negatives -- 3.7 turnovers, the twin poison of a .411 FG% and .739 FT%, only 1.3 steals vs. a career average of 1.7 (and 1.8-2.0 in his prime years). He's hurting you more than he's helping you this season.
* Jonny Flynn -- A fringe fantasy starter at best, he boasts an average of 4.0 assists vs. 2.9 turnovers for the season. Until he's scoring 18-20 ppg, he's not very playable -- even with over a 3 and steal per game.
* Tony Parker -- Another player I own with hideous turnovers. 5.9 assists vs. 3.0 turnovers on the season. Parker had 6.9 assists to 2.6 turnovers last season. His scoring is also down significantly -- 16.2 vs. a career high 22.0 last season. With Richard Jefferson and Manu in the mix, Parker is not being counted upon as heavily this season. He's taking 5.1 fewer shots this year (12.4) and 2.7 less than he did in 2007-2008 (15.1 attempts). Given his traditional inability to hit 3s and collect many steals, Parker is a nightmare to own right now. He's supposed to at least score and collect assists, but he's not doing either at the moment.
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About Me
- Jeff Meredith
- I am a researcher, reporter and conference producer with experience spanning the aerospace & defense, biopharma, chemical, consumer electronics, energy, homeland security, human resources and IT markets.
In January I rejoined Worldwide Business Research, where I serve as program manager for Consumer Returns, SCMchem and the Digital Travel Summit.
I have an M.S. in science and medical journalism from Boston University (Dec 2008) and did my undergraduate work at Indiana University, majoring in journalism and political science (May 2001). After interning for the Chicago Tribune as a collegian, I landed my first real gig in the Windy City: I was a senior technology writer for I-Street magazine (Sept 2001-Feb 2003). I covered nanotech and biotech startups. From March-November 2003, I worked for a newsletter publisher (Exchange Monitor Publications) in DC, covering congressional hearings, the NRC & DHS.
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