Convincing the Skeptics

One way to make good trades: Show your fellow owners the full season statistics for a player on the rise, rather than statistics for the last month. This is what someone would do if they were trying to pry Al Jefferson from me. The full season statistics do not reflect his recent uptick in points and rebounds.

When I remade my team, I looked at the past month rather than the whole season. I got rid of players whose performance was diminishing (Ray Allen, Marquis Daniels) and took on players who had a chance to rise (Jeff Green, Shawn Marion) or who were better than their season ranks would indicate (Allen Iverson).

Let's look at two shooting guards for example. One has a good reputation at the moment (player A - season rank of 29, based on averages), while the other is considered fantasy poison (player B - season rank of 80) due to a trade that diminished his shot opportunities.

But the difference between player A and player B is mainly a perception gap. Here are the #s from the last month:

Player A - .450 FGs, .927 FTs, 2.1 3s, 15.6 ppg, 3.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.5 turnovers

Player B - .446 FGs, .836 FTs, 0.6 3s, 18.9 ppg, 4.1 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.8 turnovers

So field goal percentage is a small difference ... player A is superb at the line, but he only averages 3.3 attempts a game. For a team that only averages .763 and has effectively punted free throws. Player B is no slouch at the charity stripe and has 5.2 attempts per game in the last month. So here's a hypothetical:

Player A plays 15 games in a month and has 50 free throws. He hits 46 of them.
Player B plays 15 games in a month and has 78 free throws. He hits 65 of them.

If your team was 763 for 1,000, its percentage after adding player A would be .770 at the end of a month. Its percentage after adding player B would be .768. Negligible difference. ** My .763 team only has 3 points in the category and the next closest team is above .770 ... I still wouldn't catch them **

Plus we're 35 games into the year ... I haven't tabulated how many free throws my team has attempted, but if it were 5 per game, I'd be around 1600 attempts. Add player A to a team with 1,600 attempts and its percentage would be .768 after a month. Add player B to a team with 1,600 attempts and its percentage would .766. Notice a pattern here? As the number of attempts rises, the ability of player A to even add to your FT% is diminished. And the team free throw percentage is terrible because of a guy named Dwight Howard, who is averaging 11 attempts a game and only hitting 57% of them. Player A's abilities are wasted on such a team and are not a difference maker. Player B doesn't hurt you much either.

Player A has hit 1.5 more 3s and averages 1.3 fewer turnovers -- ok, point taken.

But player B is averaging 3.3 more points per game, 3 more assists, 0.9 more rebounds, 0.4 more steals. Your team finds itself in very competitive assist, rebound, and steals races. Your team is also over 30 3s ahead of the next closest competitor (who has 7 more games played), and then 60 3s ahead of the next guy. It's either going to take them a while to catch up with you, or they never will because you just inserted Linas Kleiza in your lineup for the next 3 weeks.

By the way, player A is Ray Allen and player B is Allen Iverson. And no, there's not that big of a gap between them and Iverson - while being turnover prone - gives me a shooting guard who can collect assists, steals, and even rebound more.

Since the time I traded Allen (literally a week ago), his season field goal percentage has fallen from .493 to .477. Partly because he's 18 of 52 during his last three games (.346). And 24 for 71 in his last 5 (.338). Think I dumped him at the right time? I do.