Finally, however, there is good news. The team's rising star is close to making his long-awaited return to the court.
Ellis has been rehabbing for the last 4 1/2 months since undergoing surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left ankle in late August. He has now reached the final stage of his rehabilitation and has been taking part in half-court, 5-on-5 drills in practice this week.
"Monta actually did the whole practice today, which probably I wasn't supposed to do. It kind of ended up that way," Warriors coach Don Nelson told The Oakland Tribune. "He's getting closer. ... He was playing the small forward. We had a lot of guys out. But his grasp of the plays are decent, obviously."
According to a story in the Tribune last week, Ellis performed well in a strength test two weeks ago. From there, he advanced to "more strenuous running and sprinting, various jumping-related exercises and other elements related to increasing his explosiveness and power."
The results have reportedly been strong, as Ellis may be looking at a possible return on the Warriors' current seven-game homestand, which concludes on January 25.
These things always take longer than we expect, don't they? With no ties to Warrior team sources (can't say I have Don Nelson on speed dial), I would still not be surprised to see Ellis return even after the homestand.
If this fantasy season has taught me anything, it's a matter of rinse and repeat: "Don't get your hopes up." Especially with an injured player returning to a team that is already out of the playoff race (yes Warrior fans, your team is already toast ... it will again require more than 48 wins to get in & you're not even close to last season's pace). No reason to rush him, right?
The good news is that Ellis should at least return in the next few weeks, which doesn't seem to be the case with Gilbert Arenas. ** I have a separate Gilbert rant which I'll later post **
It's tough to project numbers for a healthy Ellis. It would be simple enough if this was a matter of subtracting Baron Davis and adding Corey Maggette. One could expect similar point production and perhaps more assists. But the addition of Jamal Crawford - who certainly scores more than Al Harrington did as a Warrior (21.3 ppg for Crawford in the last month as a Warrior) - makes it tougher.
Ellis averaged 20.2 ppg, 3.9 assists, and 5 rebounds per game last year (to go with 1.5 steals and an absurd .531 shooting percentage). With Crawford being a 4th cook in the kitchen, I would expect less scoring from Monta -- and still the potential for more assists. 16-18 points per game seems like a reasonable expectation for Monta in this offense -- if he can produce 5-6 assists and continue to shoot with great accuracy, his fantasy value would be similar to last season. That's a big if considering Monta's FG% a year ago (Name a starting guard since Michael Jordan -- between 87-88 and 91-92 -- who has shot around 53% for two consecutive seasons ... I'm curious).
Of course, expecting Ellis, Crawford, Jackson and Maggette to all be healthy at the same time is a bit nutty. The way this season has gone for the Warriors, they may only have 3 scorers at a time. When all four are healthy, Maggette will be the one coming off the bench -- although his minutes would still be at a starter's level. The idea of playing Maggette as an undersized 4 seems to have faded.
On to other fantasy notes:
* Just as I was dogging Shawn Marion, he came through with a nice performance. 16 pts, 11 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks, and 6 of 6 from the free throw line. Bravo Shawn -- keep it up.
* Richard Hamilton returned to the Pistons lineup and Allen Iverson had a ho-hum number of shot attempts (12) and few assists (5) to compensate for his scoring (13).
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Iverson hasn't really lost many shot attempts when Hamilton is healthy & Stuckey is starting. I researched Iverson's # of shot attempts when the Pistons were employing the starting lineup of Stuckey, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace.
I found that between December 9 (Stuckey's first start in this lineup) and December 26 (the last game where the whole lineup was healthy -- Hamilton was injured during late December/early January games), Iverson took 113 shots in 8 games. That's an average of 14.125 shots.
Iverson had a high of 24 attempts, a low of 7 ... but 6 games between 11 and 17 shot attempts. That seems like the range he'll typically be in.
On the season (including all the games where Stuckey came off the bench and Hamilton was injured), Iverson is averaging 15.1 shots per game. So the difference is not all that dramatic -- 14 vs. 15. Maybe he loses 1 shot because Stuckey and Hamilton are both in the lineup.
When the whole lineup was healthy in December, Stuckey took 95 shots over 8 games, averaging close to 12 shots per game. Last night, Stuckey took 11 shots, Wallace took 14, Prince took 12, Hamilton took 12, Iverson took 12. A very balanced attack.
The problem isn't so much shot attempts for Allen Iverson -- the problem is making them! So don't blame these scoring ills on the return of Richard Hamilton or Stuckey. Iverson simply has to shoot better. He should be an 18-19 ppg player on this Piston team.
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