Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Turnover Kings

A lot of fantasy owners ignore turnovers -- even though the category counts just as much as points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3s, FT% and FG%.

Sure, you can't win a league with a bunch of players who only average 0.8 TOs ... partly because there's a good chance they're not handling the ball much or doing anything else to bring you a title. With no risk there's no reward ...

There are turnover prone players whom you can live with, simply because they contribute too much across other categories: LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant (#2, #3, and #4 in average TOs for the last month) are good examples this season. Ditto for Dwayne Wade (3.7 TOs per game on the year). But who are some of the players you can afford to do without and should consider dealing - no matter how unacceptable the return seems - because of turnovers? This blog's list:

Stephen Jackson -- Some may salivate over the assist numbers (5.9), since Jackson has small forward eligibility. But avoid him at all cost. If you're looking for assists from a small forward (and LeBron is not on your team and unattainable via trade), why not go for Iguodala, Turkoglu or Vince Carter? All average fewer turnovers (2.9, 2.7 and 2.1 respectively) vs. Jackson (3.9) and have comparable assist numbers (5.3, 4.8, 4.7). Jackson's field goal percentage (.395) is also toxic. Don't forget that Jackson shot 40.5% a year ago and 44.6% the year before -- it doesn't get much beter. Don't count on a second half shooting surge.

Carmelo Anthony-- He's an Olympian and a so-called franchise player (although his team has never made it to the second round of the playoffs), but his fantasy value is limited. There's a reason Carmelo has a rank of 128 based on season averages. He's averaging 3.3 turnovers per game and only shooting .437 from the field, while offering little in the way of steals or blocks. He does average 21.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, but he doesn't give you anything else. His negatives are overwhelming.

Because of his injury, Carmelo obviously has little trade value at the moment. Wait for him to return and have a flurry of 30 point games ... and then dump him.

Russell Westbrook -- He's become a starter for many teams, on the strength of his point, steal and assist numbers -- not to mention the rebounds he provides at the PG position. But resist the temptation to hold onto him. He's averaging 3.3 turnovers a game for the last month, 3.0 turnovers for the season. Westbrook's shooting has improved (.442) in the last month vs. his full season #s (.405), but his turnovers are still a major drawback.

Chris Duhon-- High turnover rates seem to accompany the point guard position, but Duhon is a particularly egregious case. He is averaging 3.0 turnovers for the year and 3.4 during the last month (#6 among all players ... #5 if we exclude Baron Davis because he only played 4 games). Duhon has been more on the mark lately as a shooter, but still carries a .424 field goal percentage for the year. With the heavy minutes he's logging for the Knicks, he's also a breakdown candidate. Now's a good time to dump him.

Steve Nash -- We may all hold him in the highest esteem, but his fantasy value is quickly fleeting. He is no longer in the class of players (James, Bryant) that you hold onto despite turnovers. 3.6 turnovers per game this year ... and it's joined by less scoring (14.4 vs. 16.9 a year ago), fewer assists (9.0 vs. 11.1 a year ago), and a lower field goal percentage (.485 vs. .532 two years ago and .504 last year). His 3s are down as well (1.6 vs. 2.2 last season).

Devin Harris -- 12th in turnovers during the last month at 3.3. And he averages 2.8 for the year. Chalk it up as a bad, injury plagued month perhaps? Harris shot .419, with 18.2 ppg (vs. his season average of 22.3 ppg), 5.8 assists (season average of 6.4), and an underwhelming 0.6 3s.

Boris Diaw -- Anyone who picked up Diaw after the Bobcats trade made a smart move. How many players with power forward/center eligibility have averaged anything close to 5.5 assists during the last month? Only Tim Duncan (4.4) is within striking distance. Unfortunately, Diaw does carry a few drawbacks. In the last month, he is shooting .436 from the field, .679 from the line, and he's averaging 3.3 turnovers.

Allen Iverson -- The turnovers were more tolerable when Iverson was averaging 26 points per game. Now that he's averaging closer to 18 ppg, the turnovers make him a fringe starter in fantasy leagues. Iverson averages 2.8 turnovers per game and pairs that with .422 shooting. He has little trade value. The question now is whether you even bother placing him in your lineup. If you need assists and steals, you may have no other choice.

Raymond Felton -- 6.3 assists and 1.5 steals per game, but at what cost? Felton averages 2.6 turnovers per game. This is hardly his biggest problem as he also shoots .401 and only averages 0.7 3s.

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About Me

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I am a researcher, reporter and conference producer with experience spanning the aerospace & defense, biopharma, chemical, consumer electronics, energy, homeland security, human resources and IT markets.

In January I rejoined Worldwide Business Research, where I serve as program manager for Consumer Returns, SCMchem and the Digital Travel Summit.

I have an M.S. in science and medical journalism from Boston University (Dec 2008) and did my undergraduate work at Indiana University, majoring in journalism and political science (May 2001). After interning for the Chicago Tribune as a collegian, I landed my first real gig in the Windy City: I was a senior technology writer for I-Street magazine (Sept 2001-Feb 2003). I covered nanotech and biotech startups. From March-November 2003, I worked for a newsletter publisher (Exchange Monitor Publications) in DC, covering congressional hearings, the NRC & DHS.


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