Slow Out Of The Starting Gate

Another fantasy basketball season, another series of headaches.

I knew this year's team would be a slow starter since I chose Rashard Lewis in the 3rd round (10 game suspension to start the year) and Kevin Love in the 7th (not knowing that he broke his left - non-shooting - hand and would miss the first month to month and a half). What I didn't count on were early season injuries to Tony Parker, Eric Gordon, and Nate Robinson (not to mention ineffectiveness and ceding minutes to Larry Hughes and upstart Toney Douglas). These injuries, and the unfortunate selection of Elton Brand in the 4th round, had me scrambling to find anyone who could fill out my roster.

Another thought: partial games are absolutely killer. I was starting Kelenna Azubuike - one game after a 22 point, 5 rebound, 5 assist performance and on the heels of a 30+ point performance - when he destroyed his left patella tendon ... two minutes into the game! He could've at least been considerate and suffered the injury in the 4th quarter, after a full game's worth of production. Speights did the same thing to me and Tony Parker also chipped in with two games interrupted by injury. At least a scratch/DNP does not count against you -- when you have a starter go down in the first or second quarter of a game, it does count against you and you're screwed.

I don't want to sound like too much of a whiner because things are starting to look up for my team. I finally have everyone healthy and contributing (with the exception of last man Jermaine O'Neal, who is attended to a family matter). The backcourt of Parker, Eric Gordon and Andre Iguodala is finally playing together (this is a 12 team league with 14 player rosters). The forwards are Rashard Lewis, Jason Thompson and Kevin Love. Dwight Howard is my center. My two UTIL slots are filled by a mix of Elton Brand, Felton, Flynn and Jermaine O'Neal. Positioned at the end of my bench, I have Nate Robinson (I cut him and picked him up again -- can't stay in D'Antoni's doghouse forever, right?), Ramon Sessions (Flynn insurance -- Sessions probably deserves to play in front of him) and 3-point extraordinaire Matt Bonner.

In the absence of Parker and Gordon, I made a few savvy pickups -- most notably Dahntay Jones (who carried more of the scoring load in Troy Murphy's absence and benefited from Mike Dunleavy's early season rehabilitation) and Darren Collison, who delivered some solid games for me when Chris Paul was hurt.

In 8 starts, Dahntay Jones shot .442/.804, chipped in three 3s, 132 pts (16.5 ppg), 33 rebounds (4.1 boards), 22 assists (2.8 assists), 10 steals, 9 blocks, and turned the ball over 18 times.

In 8 starts, Darren Collison shot .440/.900, hit 7 3s, scored 114 pts (14.3), had 27 rebounds (3.4 boards), 50 assists (6.3 assists), 7 steals, no blocks and 20 turnovers.

In each case, there was one useless game dragging down the totals -- I didn't know when Mike Dunleavy was returning and that resulted in an unproductive game from Jones. And Paul's return, which I was also unaware of, resulted in an unproductive game from Collison. That's the inherent risk involved with substitute starters -- it's hard to know when they'll be supplanted.

The loss of Collison was softened by the solid play I've received from Raymond Felton, a free agent pickup. In four starts, Felton has posted some nice numbers:
.541/.889, 4 3s, 52 points (13 ppg), 10 rebounds, 23 assists (5.8), 13 steals, 1 block, 4 turnovers (only 1 per game)

The steals alone have made him a great play, but look at his field goal percentage and low turnover figure (especially impressive for a point guard, although this is admittedly a small sample size -- I should note that Felton is averaging 2.2 TOs a game on the season and averaged 2.8 last year).

Jonny Flynn was dropped by an impatient owner in our league (not unlike myself -- I cut Stephen Curry in the early going, prior to the Stephen Jackson trade and Azubuike's injury, and I'm kicking myself for it) and I have given him the occasional chance to start. Flynn's #s are somewhat similar to Felton, but the percentages and turnovers are not as favorable. In five starts, Flynn has posted:
5 3s, 65 points (13 ppg), 14 rebounds, 36 assists (7.2), 6 steals, 0 blocks, 11 turnovers

Flynn's assist numbers were discouraging at the start of the season, but I think he certainly has the chance to average over 5 the rest of the way. I am also expecting over 14 points per game -- he's proven that he can score in this league. With improvement in his field goal percentage (only .436 on the year) and TOs (3.2 per game ... to go with only 4.1 assists), he could be a marginal fantasy starter. And if he implodes, I have Ramon Sessions waiting in the wings.

Elton Brand is a huge wildcard for this year's team. It doesn't seem like he'll come close to his career point (19.8) and rebound (10.1) figures. Coming into tonight's ballgame, he was only averaging 12.2 ppg and 7.1 rebounds. However, he has shown signs of improvement -- he's averaging 14.7 ppg and 8.9 rebounds in his last 9 games. More encouragingly, he has recorded 12 steals and 19 blocks over those 9 games. For his career, Brand has shot over 50% from the field but this year's FG% is only .447 (identical to his performance last season in 29 games). He's clearly struggling with his shot and from what I've seen, his shots are being blocked much more often. But he could still fill a valuable role, thanks to rebounds and blocks -- of course, his production has fallen far short of what's expected from a 4th round pick. It seems almost comical that ESPN was asking experts whether Brand should be taken before David Lee.

#s for other starters and brief commentary:
Tony Parker -- 17.6 ppg, 5.6 assists

Parker is starting to round into form (see tonight's 18 pt, 11 assist performance) and his stats are partly hurt by a 26 minute game and an 11 minute game. After averaging 34 minutes per game last season, he's only averaged 30:23 so far. I'd expect that figure to go up and Parker's stats will rise accordingly. As long as Tim Duncan, Ginobili and Jefferson are healthy, I wouldn't expect 22 points again. But he can easily match last year's assist average (6.9).

Eric Gordon -- .483/.758, 1.9 3s, 17.7 ppg, 3.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.2 blocks, 2.4 TOs

Another player affected by injuries, Gordon had a brilliant first 7 games and is just getting back into the flow of things. I'd expect the points to rise, the assists to rise and the field goal percentage to drop a bit. The 3s and steals are certainly encouraging.

Andre Iguodala -- .428/.754, 1.4 3s, 19.5 ppg, 6.8 reb, 5.8 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.7 blocks, 3.2 TOs

How will Iverson affect his scoring? I wouldn't expect much of an impact based on how often Louis Williams was scoring (17.4 ppg) to start the year. I see Iverson simply filling that vacancy. The rebound and assist numbers are up for Iggy (vs. 5.7 boards and 5.3 assists a season ago). Of course, Iggy's FG% is awful -- and we've seen no sign of improvement in his outside shooting. He is what he is at this point ...