1) If you're shopping a player you believe in and everyone else thinks he has no value, keep him -- don't cut him
I can offer two examples here. I had Aubrey Huff earlier this season (my 17th round draft pick in a 12 team league) and I firmly believed in his ability to bounce back from a poor 2009 (.694 OPS). Just look at Huff's even years vs. his odd ones:
2004 -- .853
2005 -- .749 (down .104)
2006 -- .813 (up .64)
2007 -- .778 (down .35)
2008 -- .912 (up .134)
2009 -- .694 (down .218)
2010 -- .928 (up .234)
After 128 at bats for my team, Huff had the look of a good but not great fantasy player. Hitting .289 with 19 runs, 4 HR and 18 RBI, he was on pace for 89 runs, 19 HR and 84 RBI in 600 at bats. If that's your 1B production, you can expect to severely lag behind teams with Cabrera, Pujols, Votto and Teixeira. At the same time, I knew that Huff had value and could be a fine 9th or 10th bat to round out a lineup. And if the anemic Giant offense started putting more men on base, he'd be in a position to produce a lot more RBI. It was relatively early in the year and I thought he could become a 30-100 player. But I wanted a sure thing at first base, not a vague hope.
As I sought to upgrade at the position and exchange Huff with other GMs, they told me that Huff was "the type of player I could get off the waiver wire. He's garbage." I heard as much from a GM who was unwilling to move Victor Martinez.
Of course, we can fast forward to today and see that Huff is the 6th ranked first baseman in terms of season totals (#26 overall in Yahoo), 12th ranked in terms of season averages (#85). Victor Martinez? 27th among 1B eligibles in season averages (which doesn't penalize him for his time on the DL).
The tragedy here (if there can be tragedies in a game as frivolous as fantasy baseball) is that I listened to the other GM and became convinced that Huff was worthless. I cut him for the likes of Adam LaRoche and Russell Branyan. Through 442 at bats, Huff has produced 79 runs, 22 HR and 74 RBI. He may not reach 30-100 status (the Giants have 35 games left ... 8 HR and 26 RBI is a bit ambitious), but 25-90 is firmly within sight.
Another example of a player I believed in who had no trade value? Colby Lewis. Lewis is currently the 25th ranked starting pitcher based on season totals with 156 Ks in 161 1/3 IP, a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He'd probably be ranked even higher if not for a relatively low win total (9). I knew Lewis was for real right from the get go this season -- particularly the strikeout totals. But with a loaded pitching staff (Lincecum, Halladay, Wainwright, Lee and Hughes) and poor hitting to start the year, I needed to change my roster. Unfortunately, my pitching depth -- particularly Lewis -- didn't interest anyone. So I cut Lewis and the same GM who had knocked his credentials (based on his performance pre-Japan -- the Lewis of 2010 bears no resemblance to the Lewis of 2003) was swift to pick him up with a waiver claim.
Moral of the story: If you believe in someone, don't pay attention to their trade value. Only pay attention to how much you value them.
I can offer two examples here. I had Aubrey Huff earlier this season (my 17th round draft pick in a 12 team league) and I firmly believed in his ability to bounce back from a poor 2009 (.694 OPS). Just look at Huff's even years vs. his odd ones:
2004 -- .853
2005 -- .749 (down .104)
2006 -- .813 (up .64)
2007 -- .778 (down .35)
2008 -- .912 (up .134)
2009 -- .694 (down .218)
2010 -- .928 (up .234)
After 128 at bats for my team, Huff had the look of a good but not great fantasy player. Hitting .289 with 19 runs, 4 HR and 18 RBI, he was on pace for 89 runs, 19 HR and 84 RBI in 600 at bats. If that's your 1B production, you can expect to severely lag behind teams with Cabrera, Pujols, Votto and Teixeira. At the same time, I knew that Huff had value and could be a fine 9th or 10th bat to round out a lineup. And if the anemic Giant offense started putting more men on base, he'd be in a position to produce a lot more RBI. It was relatively early in the year and I thought he could become a 30-100 player. But I wanted a sure thing at first base, not a vague hope.
As I sought to upgrade at the position and exchange Huff with other GMs, they told me that Huff was "the type of player I could get off the waiver wire. He's garbage." I heard as much from a GM who was unwilling to move Victor Martinez.
Of course, we can fast forward to today and see that Huff is the 6th ranked first baseman in terms of season totals (#26 overall in Yahoo), 12th ranked in terms of season averages (#85). Victor Martinez? 27th among 1B eligibles in season averages (which doesn't penalize him for his time on the DL).
The tragedy here (if there can be tragedies in a game as frivolous as fantasy baseball) is that I listened to the other GM and became convinced that Huff was worthless. I cut him for the likes of Adam LaRoche and Russell Branyan. Through 442 at bats, Huff has produced 79 runs, 22 HR and 74 RBI. He may not reach 30-100 status (the Giants have 35 games left ... 8 HR and 26 RBI is a bit ambitious), but 25-90 is firmly within sight.
Another example of a player I believed in who had no trade value? Colby Lewis. Lewis is currently the 25th ranked starting pitcher based on season totals with 156 Ks in 161 1/3 IP, a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He'd probably be ranked even higher if not for a relatively low win total (9). I knew Lewis was for real right from the get go this season -- particularly the strikeout totals. But with a loaded pitching staff (Lincecum, Halladay, Wainwright, Lee and Hughes) and poor hitting to start the year, I needed to change my roster. Unfortunately, my pitching depth -- particularly Lewis -- didn't interest anyone. So I cut Lewis and the same GM who had knocked his credentials (based on his performance pre-Japan -- the Lewis of 2010 bears no resemblance to the Lewis of 2003) was swift to pick him up with a waiver claim.
Moral of the story: If you believe in someone, don't pay attention to their trade value. Only pay attention to how much you value them.
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